| THE CURRENT WORRIES1. Content SuppliersThe | | | | Corruption and inefficiency are intuitively |
| Ethos of Free ContentContent Suppliers is the | | | | associated with the public sector ("Other People's |
| underprivileged sector of the Internet. They all | | | | Money" - OPM). This, together with the ulterior |
| lose money (even sites which offer basic, | | | | motives of members of the ruling political |
| standardized goods - books, CDs), with the | | | | echelons (the infamous American Paranoia), a lack |
| exception of sites profering sex or tourism. No | | | | of variety and of catering to the tastes and |
| user seems to be grateful for the effort and | | | | interests of certain audiences and the automatic |
| resources invested in creating and distributing | | | | equation of private enterprise with democracy |
| content. The recent breakdown of traditional roles | | | | lead to a privatization of the young medium.The |
| (between publisher and author, record company | | | | end result is the same: the private sector takes |
| and singer, etc.) and the direct access the | | | | over the medium from "below" (makes offers to |
| creative artist is gaining to its paying public may | | | | the owners or operators of the medium that |
| change this attitude of ingratitude but hitherto | | | | they cannot possibly refuse) - or from "above" |
| there are scarce signs of that. Moreover, it is | | | | (successful lobbying in the corridors of power |
| either quality of presentation (which only a | | | | leads to the appropriate legislation and the |
| publisher can afford) or ownership and (often | | | | medium is "privatized"). Every privatization - |
| shoddy) dissemination of content by the author. A | | | | especially that of a medium - provokes public |
| really qualitative, fully commerce enabled site | | | | opposition. There are (usually founded) suspicions |
| costs up to 5,000,000 USD, excluding site | | | | that the interests of the public are compromised |
| maintenance and customer and visitor services. | | | | and sacrificed on the altar of commercialization |
| Despite these heavy outlays, site designers are | | | | and rating. Fears of monopolization and |
| constantly criticized for lack of creativity or for | | | | cartelization of the medium are evoked - and |
| too much creativity. More and more is asked of | | | | proven correct in due course. Otherwise, there is |
| content purveyors and creators. They are | | | | fear of the concentration of control of the |
| exploited by intermediaries, hitch hiker sand other | | | | medium in a few hands. All these things do |
| parasites. This is all an off-shoot of the ethos of | | | | happen - but the pace is so slow that the initial |
| the Internet as a free content area.Most of the | | | | fears are forgotten and public attention reverts |
| users like to surf (browse, visit sites) the net | | | | to fresher issues.A new Communications Act was |
| without reason or goal in mind. This makes it | | | | enacted in the USA in 1934. It was meant to |
| difficult to apply to the web traditional marketing | | | | transform radio frequencies into a national |
| techniques.What is the meaning of "targeted | | | | resource to be sold to the private sector which |
| audiences" or "market shares" in this context? If | | | | was supposed to use it to transmit radio signals |
| a surfer visits sites which deal with aberrant sex | | | | to receivers. In other words: the radio was |
| and nuclear physics in the same session - what to | | | | passed on to private and commercial hands. Public |
| make of it?Moreover, the public and legislative | | | | radio was doomed to be marginalized.The |
| backlash against the gathering of surfer's data by | | | | American administration withdrew from its last |
| Internet ad agencies and other web sites - has | | | | major involvement in the Internet in April 1995, |
| led to growing ignorance regarding the profile of | | | | when the NSF ceased to finance some of the |
| Internet users, their demography, habits, | | | | networks and, thus, privatized its hitherto heavy |
| preferences and dislikes."Free" is a key word on | | | | involvement in the net.A new Communications |
| the Internet: it used to belong to the US | | | | Act was legislated in 1996. It permitted "organized |
| Government and to a bunch of universities. Users | | | | anarchy". It allowed media operators to invade |
| like information, with emphasis on news and data | | | | each other's territories. Phone companies were |
| about new products. But they do not like to shop | | | | allowed to transmit video and cable companies |
| on the net - yet. Only 38% of all surfers made a | | | | were allowed to transmit telephony, for instance. |
| purchase during 1998.It would seem that users will | | | | This was all phased over a long period of time - |
| not pay for content unless it is unavailable | | | | still, it was a revolution whose magnitude is |
| elsewhere or qualitatively rare or made rare. One | | | | difficult to gauge and whose consequences defy |
| way to "rarefy" content is to review and rate it.2. | | | | imagination. It carries an equally momentous price |
| Quality-Rated ContentThere is a long term trend | | | | tag - official censorship. "Voluntary censorship", to |
| of clutter-breaking website-rating and critique. It | | | | be sure, somewhat toothless standardization and |
| may have a limited influence on the consumption | | | | enforcement authorities, to be sure - still, a |
| decisions of some users and on their willingness to | | | | censorship with its own institutions to boot. The |
| pay for content. Browsers already sport "What's | | | | private sector reacted by threatening litigation - |
| New" and "What's Hot" buttons. Most Search | | | | but, beneath the surface it is caving in to |
| Engines and directories recommend specific sites. | | | | pressure and temptation, constructing its own |
| But users are still cautious. Studies discovered that | | | | censorship codes both in the cable and in the |
| nouser, no matter how heavy, has consistently | | | | internet media.InstitutionalizationThis phase is the |
| re-visited more than 200 sites, a minuscule | | | | next in the Internet's history, though, it seems, |
| number. Some recommendation services often | | | | few realize it.It is characterized by enhanced |
| produce random - at times, wrong - selections for | | | | activities of legislation. Legislators, on all levels, |
| their users. There are also concerns regarding | | | | discover the medium and lurch at it passionately. |
| privacy issues. The backlash against Amazon's | | | | Resources which were considered "free", suddenly |
| "readers circles" is an example. Web Critics, who | | | | are transformed to "national treasures not to be |
| work today mainly for the printed press, publish | | | | dispensed with cheaply, casually and with |
| their wares on the net and collaborate with | | | | frivolity".It is conceivable that certain parts of the |
| intelligent software which hyperlinks to web sites, | | | | Internet will be "nationalized" (for instance, in the |
| recommends them and refers users to them. | | | | form of a licensing requirement) and tendered to |
| Some web critics (guides) became identified with | | | | the private sector. Legislation will be enacted |
| specific applications - really, expert systems | | | | which will deal with permitted and disallowed |
| -which incorporate their knowledge and | | | | content (obscenity ? incitement ? racial or gender |
| experience. Most volunteer-based directories (such | | | | bias ?) No medium in the USA (not to mention |
| as the "Open Directory" and the late "Go" | | | | the wide world) has eschewed such legislation. |
| directory) work this way.The flip side of the coin | | | | There are sure to be demands to allocate time |
| of content consumption is investment in content | | | | (or space, or software, or content, or hardware) |
| creation, marketing, distribution and maintenance.3. | | | | to "minorities", to "public affairs", to "community |
| The MoneyWhere is the capital needed to finance | | | | business". This is a tax that the business sector |
| content likely to come from?Again, there are two | | | | will have to pay to fend off the eager legislator |
| schools:According to the first, sites will be financed | | | | and his nuisance value.All this is bound to lead to a |
| through advertising - and so will search engines | | | | monopolization of hosts and servers. The |
| and other applications accessed by users.Certain | | | | important broadcast channels will diminish in |
| ASPs (Application Service Providers which rent | | | | number and be subjected to severe content |
| out access to application software which resides | | | | restrictions. Sites which will refuse to succumb to |
| on their servers) are considering this model.The | | | | these requirements - will be deleted or neutralized. |
| recent collapse in online advertising rates and | | | | Content guidelines (euphemism for censorship) |
| click-through rates raised serious doubts regarding | | | | exist, even as we write, in all major content |
| the validity and viability of this model. Marketing | | | | providers (CompuServe, AOL, Yahoo!-Geocities, |
| gurus, such as Seth Godin went as far as | | | | Tripod, Prodigy).The BloodbathThis is the phase of |
| declaring "interruption marketing" (=ads and | | | | consolidation. The number of players is severely |
| banners) dead.The second approach is simpler and | | | | reduced. The number of browser types will settle |
| allows for the existence of non-commercial | | | | on 2-3 (Netscape, Microsoft and Opera?). |
| content.It proposes to collect negligible sums | | | | Networks will merge to form privately owned |
| (cents or fractions of cents) from every user for | | | | mega-networks. Servers will merge to form |
| every visit ("micro-payments"). These | | | | hyper-servers run on supercomputers in "server |
| accumulated cents will enable the site-owners to | | | | farms". The number of ISPs will be considerably |
| update and to maintain them and encourage | | | | cut. 50 companies ruled the greater part of the |
| entrepreneurs to develop new content and invest | | | | media markets in the USA in 1983. The number in |
| in it. Certain content aggregators (especially of | | | | 1995 was 18. At the end of the century they will |
| digital textbooks) have adopted this model | | | | number 6.This is the stage when companies - |
| (Questia, Fathom).The adherents of the first | | | | fighting for financial survival - strive to acquire as |
| school point to the 5 million USD invested in | | | | many users/listeners/viewers as possible. The |
| advertising during 1995 and to the 60 million or so | | | | programming is shall owed to the lowest (and |
| invested during 1996.Its opponents point exactly | | | | widest) common denominator. Shallow |
| at the same numbers: ridiculously small when | | | | programming dominates as long as the bloodbath |
| contrasted with more conventional advertising | | | | proceeds.From Rags to RichesTough competition |
| modes. The potential of advertising on the net is | | | | produces four processes:1. A Major Drop in |
| limited to 1.5 billion USD annually in 1998, thundered | | | | Hardware PricesThis happens in every medium |
| the pessimists. The actual figure was double the | | | | but it doubly applies to a computer-dependent |
| prediction but still woefully small and inadequate to | | | | medium, such as the Internet.Computer |
| support the internet's content development. | | | | technology seems to abide by "Moore's Law" |
| Compare these figures to the sale of Internet | | | | which says that the number of transistors which |
| software (4 billion), Internet hardware (3 billion), | | | | can be put on a chip doubles every 18 months. |
| Internet access provision (4.2 billion in 1995 | | | | As a result of this miniaturization, computing |
| alone!).Even if online advertising were to be | | | | power quadruples every 18 months and an |
| restored to its erstwhile glory days, other | | | | exponential series ensues. Organic-biological-DNA |
| bottlenecks remain. Advertising encourages the | | | | computers, quantum computers, chaos |
| consumer to interact and to initiate the delivery | | | | computers - prompted by vast profits and |
| of a product to him. This - the delivery phase - is | | | | spawned by inventive genius will ensure the |
| a slow and enervating epilogue to the exciting | | | | continued applicability of Moore's Law.The Internet |
| affair of ordering online. Too many consumers still | | | | is also subject to "Metcalf's Law".It says that |
| complain of late delivery of the wrong or | | | | when we connect N computers to a network - |
| defective products.The solution may lie in the | | | | we get an increase of N to the second power in |
| integration of advertising and content. The late | | | | its computing processing power. And these N |
| Pointcast, for instance, integrated advertising into | | | | computers are more powerful every year, |
| its news broadcasts, continuously streamed to | | | | according to Moore's Law. The growth of |
| the user's screen, even when inactive (it had an | | | | computing powers in networks is a multiple of the |
| active screen saver and ticker in a "push | | | | effects of the two laws. More and more |
| technology"). Downloading of digital music, video | | | | computers with ever increasing computing power |
| and text (e-books) leads to the immediate | | | | get connected and create an exponential 16 times |
| gratification of consumers and increases the | | | | growth in the network's computing power every |
| efficacy of advertising.Whatever the case may | | | | 18 months.2. Content Related FeesThis was |
| be, a uniform, agreed upon system of rating as a | | | | prevalent in the Net until recently. Even potentially |
| basis for charging advertisers, is sorely needed. | | | | commercial software can still be downloaded for |
| There is also the question of what does the | | | | free. In many countries television viewers still pay |
| advertiser pay for? The rates of many | | | | for television broadcasts - but in the USA and |
| advertisers (Procter and Gamble, for instance) are | | | | many other countries in the West, the basic |
| based not on the number of hits or impressions | | | | package of television channels comes free of |
| (=entries, visits to a site). - but on the number of | | | | charge.As users / consumers form a habit of |
| the times that their advertisement was hit (page | | | | using (or consuming) the software - it is |
| views), or clicked through.Finally, there is the paid | | | | commercialized and begins to carry a price tag. |
| subscription model - a flop to judge by the | | | | This is what happened with the advent of cable |
| experience of the meagre number of sites of | | | | television: contents are sold for subscription or per |
| venerable and leading newspapers that are on a | | | | usage (Pay Per View - PPV) fees.Gradually, this is |
| subscription basis. Dow Jones (Wall Street Journal) | | | | what will happen to most of the sites and |
| and The Economist. Only two.All this is not very | | | | software on the Net. Those which survive will |
| promising. But one should never forget that the | | | | begin to collect usage fees, access fees, |
| Internet is probably the closest thing we have to | | | | subscription fees, downloading fees and other, |
| an efficient market. As consumers refuse to pay | | | | appropriately named, fees. These fees are bound |
| for content, investment will dry up and content | | | | to be low - but it is the principle that counts. Even |
| will become scarce (through closures of web | | | | a few cents per transaction may accumulate to |
| sites). As scarcity sets in, consumer may | | | | hefty sums with the traffic which characterizes |
| reconsider.Your article deals with the future of the | | | | some web sites on the Net (or, at least its more |
| Internet as a medium. Will it be able to support its | | | | popular locales).3. Increased User FriendlinessAs |
| content creation and distribution operations | | | | long as the computer is less user friendly and less |
| economically?If the Internet is a budding medium - | | | | reliable (predictable) than television - less of a |
| then we should derive great benefit from a study | | | | black box - its potential (and its future) is limited. |
| of the history of its predecessors.The Future | | | | Television attracts 3.5 billion users daily. The |
| History of the Internet as a MediumThe internet | | | | Internet stands to attract - under the most |
| is simply the latest in a series of networks which | | | | exuberant scenario - less than one tenth of this |
| revolutionized our lives. A century before the | | | | number of people. The only reasons for this |
| internet, the telegraph, the railways, the radio and | | | | disparity are (the lack of) user friendliness and |
| the telephone have been similarly heralded as | | | | reliability. Even browsers, among the most user |
| "global" and transforming. Every medium of | | | | friendly applications ever -are not sufficiently so. |
| communications goes through the same | | | | The user still needs to know how to use a |
| evolutionary cycle:AnarchyThe Public PhaseAt this | | | | keyboard and must possess some basic |
| stage, the medium and the resources attached to | | | | acquaintance with the operating system. The |
| it are very cheap, accessible, under no regulatory | | | | more mature the medium, the more friendly it |
| constraints. The public sector steps in : higher | | | | becomes. Finally, it will be operated using speech |
| education institutions, religious institutions, | | | | or common language. There will be room left for |
| government, not for profit organizations, non | | | | user "hunches" and built in flexible responses.4. |
| governmental organizations (NGOs), trade unions, | | | | Social TaxesSooner or later, the business sector |
| etc. Be deviled by limited financial resources, they | | | | has to mollify the God of public opinion with |
| regard the new medium as a cost effective way | | | | offerings of political and social nature. The Internet |
| of disseminating their messages.The Internet was | | | | is an affluent, educated, yuppie medium. It |
| not exempt from this phase which ended only a | | | | requires literacy and numeracy, live interest in |
| few years ago. It started with a complete | | | | information and its various uses (scientific, |
| computer anarchy manifested in ad hoc | | | | commercial, other), a lot of resources (free time, |
| networks, local networks, networks of | | | | money to invest in hardware, software and |
| organizations (mainly universities and organs of | | | | connect time). It empowers - and thus deepens |
| the government such as DARPA, a part of the | | | | the divide between the haves and have-nots, the |
| defence establishment, in the USA). Non | | | | developed and the developing world, the knowing |
| commercial entities jumped on the bandwagon | | | | and the ignorant, the computer illiterate.In short: |
| and started sewing these networks together (an | | | | the Internet is an elitist medium. Publicly, this is an |
| activity fully subsidized by government funds). | | | | unhealthy posture. "Internetophobia" is already |
| The result was a globe encompassing network of | | | | discernible. People (and politicians) talk about how |
| academic institutions. The American Pentagon | | | | unsafe the Internet is and about its possible uses |
| established the network of all networks, the | | | | for racial, sexist and pornographic purposes. The |
| ARPANET. Other government departments joined | | | | wider public is in a state of awe.So, site builders |
| the fray, headed by the National Science | | | | and owners will do well to begin to improve their |
| Foundation (NSF) which withdrew only lately from | | | | image: provide free access to schools and |
| the Internet.The Internet (with a different name) | | | | community centres, bankroll internet literacy |
| became semi-public property - with access | | | | classes, freely distribute contents and software to |
| granted to the chosen few.Radio took precisely | | | | educational institutions, collaborate with |
| this course. Radio transmissions started in the | | | | researchers and social scientists and engineers. In |
| USA in 1920. Those were anarchic broadcasts | | | | short: encourage the view that the Internet is a |
| with no discernible regularity. Non commercial | | | | medium catering to the needs of the community |
| organizations and not for profit organizations | | | | and the underprivileged, a mostly altruist |
| began their own broadcasts and even created | | | | endeavour. This also happens to make good |
| radio broadcasting infrastructure (albeit of the | | | | business sense by educating and conditioning a |
| cheap and local kind) dedicated to their audiences. | | | | future generation of users. He who visited a site |
| Trade unions, certain educational institution sand | | | | when a student, free of charge - will pay to do |
| religious groups commenced "public radio" | | | | so when made an executive. Such a user will also |
| broadcasts.The Commercial PhaseWhen the users | | | | pass on the information within and without his |
| (e.g., listeners in the case of the radio, or owners | | | | organization. This is called media exposure. The |
| of PCs and modems in the case of the Internet) | | | | future will, no doubt, will be witness to public |
| reach a critical mass - the business sector is | | | | Internet terminals, subsidized ISP accounts, free |
| alerted. In the name of capitalist ideology (another | | | | Internet classes and an alternative |
| religion, really) it demands "privatization" of the | | | | "non-commercial, public" approach to the Net. This |
| medium. This harps on very sensitive strings in | | | | may prove to be one more source of revenue to |
| every Western soul: the efficient allocation of | | | | content creator sand distributors. |
| resources which is the result of competition. | | | | |