| We are watching wireless history repeat itself. | | | | standing in it, the question is for how long? |
| Just like in the 1990's where suddenly the leader in | | | | The same thing that happened to Motorola last |
| handsets changed, we are watching the same | | | | decade could be getting ready to happen to Nokia |
| thing happen today. In addition the entire line-up of | | | | now. Back then the marketplace went from |
| companies changed during the last 10 years and | | | | analog handsets to digital handsets and now from |
| we may be watching the same thing starting to | | | | handsets to smart phones. |
| occur once again. | | | | In this new world who will lead? We have seen |
| The wireless industry has been growing and | | | | non-wireless companies enter and do well so far. |
| evolving. Every few years it seems like it | | | | They are changing the wireless playing field. |
| becomes and entirely new space. In the 1990's | | | | Companies like Apple and Google are already |
| Motorola was number one and everyone else | | | | competing. Companies like Dell and Lenovo are |
| struggled to catch up. Then the networks | | | | entering. Others will follow. |
| switched from analog to digital and Motorola | | | | The leaders of the industry are changing again. |
| wasn't ready. They quickly lost their footing and a | | | | Today they are Nokia, Samsung, LG, and |
| small company called Nokia took the lead with | | | | suddenly Research in Motion is now number four, |
| their digital devices. They have been growing and | | | | with Sony Ericsson in number five position. |
| held onto that lead ever since. | | | | Motorola isn't even in the top five anymore even |
| Several changes since then have occurred and | | | | though they have done well recently with their |
| Nokia kept the number one spot. However, the | | | | Droid smart phones partnering with Google. HTC |
| wireless industry is transitioning once again and | | | | is there also to round out the top seven. |
| even though Nokia is still number one for now, it | | | | This is different from just a few months ago. |
| is struggling to keep up and continue to matter | | | | Suddenly smart phones are everything and in that |
| with customers in this new world of smart | | | | world RIM is a player. Palm can be too and when |
| phones. | | | | they merge with HP they may just try and show |
| Ever since the networks converted to digital the | | | | it. Also I expect Google to work up to the top of |
| carriers like AT&T, Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile | | | | the list pretty quickly. Add to that the many |
| have tried to get customers to use digital Apps. | | | | others entering the space. |
| There were a few hundred and they were on | | | | What will the list look like one year from today? I |
| smart phones. Smart phones were a small, but | | | | believe it will look completely different in |
| growing segment of the market. Yet Apps, which | | | | companies and the order. |
| were a good idea just never caught on in a | | | | The question is what about the current leaders? |
| meaningful way. | | | | What about Nokia, Samsung and LG. There is real |
| Device makers like RIM with their Blackberry and | | | | pressure on these cell phone makers. Samsung |
| Palm let customers use Apps, but there just was | | | | and LG have actually grown with a healthy curve |
| not that much demand. | | | | over recent years because they are solidly in the |
| Then suddenly Apple entered the wireless space | | | | smart phone business and their brand says so. |
| with their iPhone a few years ago and changed | | | | Perhaps they face a threat as the marketplace |
| everything. Suddenly millions of Apple customers | | | | continues is transformation. Perhaps if other |
| were buzzing around and interested in everything | | | | non-cell phone companies are as successful as |
| this new iPhone could do. | | | | Apple they will push their way into the lead above |
| Suddenly the App market jumped from a few | | | | these more traditional companies. |
| hundred to around 150,000 in just the last three | | | | These are the questions we are wrestling with as |
| and a half years. Suddenly every smart phone | | | | the industry changes, again. |
| maker jumped in with their versions of devices | | | | Will these current leaders evolve into leaders in |
| that do more than traditional wireless phones. | | | | the smart phone space? Will they update their |
| Suddenly the economy tanked and the only | | | | brand so customers will connect with them in that |
| people still buying phones were the smart phone | | | | area? Or will they start to fade from the |
| customers. | | | | dominant position they currently have as |
| All of a sudden the cell phone business was flipped | | | | traditional cell phones are beginning to fade being |
| on its head. | | | | replaced by smart phones. |
| Suddenly Apps are important and growing very | | | | It could go either way and will be interesting to |
| quickly. Suddenly the demand for smart phones | | | | watch unfold over the next year or so. |
| keeps going up. Suddenly traditional leaders like | | | | Stay tuned because the industry is in the middle |
| Nokia are struggling to matter as the marketplace | | | | of another major transformation and we don't |
| changes once again. | | | | yet know the winners. One thing we do know is |
| Don't get me wrong, Nokia is still number one with | | | | the list of top handset makers may look much |
| roughly 40% of the market, and that is huge, but | | | | different one year from now and the devices and |
| with the current direction of the industry and their | | | | technologies certainly will. |